So that said, I'll make a few reckless predictions:
- Great speeches ahead. Obama has a shiny silver tongue, which will make for some stirring speeches. I like those, at least.
- Real leadership? Far as I can tell, Obama's never really led anything, and I imagine that track record will lead to a lot of flutter in the press and in Washington, but very little real movement in this country's sails.
- Mulligan stew. A few poor decisions early on and his credibility will start to slide. He'll revert to "safer" activities and fill a term with busy but rather lame doings.
- Weak captain, strong sailors. When good sailors realize their captain isn't always up to the job, they then start to realize that if they're going to survive, they've got to be cautious and on the ball.
Similarly I tend to think that under strong leadership, business leaders subconsciously think, "Oh, the president has got it under control, he'll take care of things -- we can relax." Under weak leadership, they think, "Uh, oh, we better be super careful and work really hard or we'll never make it!"
- Who's tanking this thing? Did you notice the economy isn't doing so hot? Anybody want to bet how long it will take the short-minded US population to start assigning the blame to Obama? If that sticks, maybe in 4 years we can get back to business.
His real focus is on social programs* -- the only problem he has is that he doesn't get to make laws, nor does he fund them. He only gets to make the budget for them and hope the Congress will pass it and send it back to him to sign.
Fingers crossed that process moves *very* slowly.
* I really hope he doesn't follow GW Bush's lead and try to fulfill all his campaign promises -- that was Bush's second-greatest failure.